Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?

This market shows a significant cross-venue arbitrage opportunity, with Polymarket pricing the relocation risk at 8¢ versus Kalshi's 3¢—a 167% spread that suggests either mispricing or different risk assessments between platforms. The extreme 7777% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the tiny 8¢ price, but the extremely low 24-hour volume of just $22.14 and modest $5,043 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that could make the spread difficult to exploit in practice. With only 54 days until resolution and the tournament starting June 11, the neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest the market has largely priced in a low relocation probability, though the 12 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution near expiry.

Resolution rules

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is scheduled to begin on Thursday, June 11, and conclude on Sunday, July 19. More information about the match schedule can be found here (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup/canadamexicousa2026/articles/match-schedule-fixtures-results-teams-stadiums). According to ESPN, there have been complaints about the summertime heat across America, causing FIFA to consider relocating the 2026 World Cup out of the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that any game originally scheduled to be held in the U.S. to be relocated to a location outside of the U.S. by June 10, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement will immediately resolve the market to "Yes" regardless of whether the relocation is later revoked. The resolution source will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade