Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of April?

The 90¢ price reflects an extremely high implied probability (90%) that AAPL closes above $210 by month-end, yet the asymmetric implied yields—350% for Yes versus 28,348% for No—signal severe mispricing or structural distortion in the market. With only $2.1K in 24-hour volume against $970K open interest and a wide 20¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating cliff risk (index of 9) as the April 30 expiration approaches in just 12 days. The flat 7-day price action at 90¢ despite thin trading suggests either strong consensus that AAPL will clear $210 or potential liquidity constraints preventing price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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