SimpleFunctions

Argentina · KXWCROUND-26RO16

Argentina is priced at 73¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 73¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXWCROUND-26RO16.

Price history

73¢ current

+19¢
50¢60¢70¢
May 23, 2026Jun 17, 2026

Contract brief

If Argentina is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Argentina

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Argentina 73¢

Range

3¢-73¢

Family volume

$128K

Identifier

KXWCROUND-26RO16-ARG

Jun 17, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

73¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 17, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

73¢

Ask

74¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXWCROUND-26RO16

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Family volume

$128K

Orderbook snapshot

73 / 74¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
73¢3.1K
72¢636
71¢3.2K
66¢40
65¢1.4K
AskSize
74¢758
75¢5
76¢1.7K
77¢5.2K
79¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Argentina is one of the teams to qualify for the Round of 16 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

Identifier

KXWCROUND-26RO16-ARG

SF Signal
SF Index
1077.68
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

2026 FIFA World Cup Round Qualification Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXWCROUND series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

294.8%

IY (No)

2155.4%

Adj IY

1078%

CRI

3

Overround

14.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

294.8%
2155.4%
Adj IY
1078%
3
Overround
14.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.