Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $40,750 (LOW) by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 25¢ price generating an implausible 7985% annualized yield on the YES side, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment given the $100 daily volume against $573k open interest. The 42¢ spread is extraordinarily wide (168% of mid-price), and the 2370% realized volatility with a 2.28 vol ratio indicates this is a highly unstable, thinly-traded micro-market where small trades can swing prices dramatically. With only 14 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be a liquidity trap where the low price may reflect position concentration rather than fundamental belief that the Audemars Piguet Index will stay above $40,750.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

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