Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,500 (HIGH) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,500 (HIGH) by April 30?. This contract trades at 34¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market has collapsed 83% over seven days from 35¢ to 6¢, suggesting either new information about AP watch valuations or a shift in trader conviction, yet the 6% implied probability appears potentially misproportionate given the index would need only a single-day spike to $41,500 across a 14-month window.
Analysis
This market has collapsed 83% over seven days from 35¢ to 6¢, suggesting either new information about AP watch valuations or a shift in trader conviction, yet the 6% implied probability appears potentially misproportionate given the index would need only a single-day spike to $41,500 across a 14-month window. The extreme 41,700% implied yield on the YES side reflects the severe mispricing created by the 4¢ bid-ask spread and minimal $25 daily volume, making this illiquid contract vulnerable to manipulation or resolution disputes given its reliance on the specialized Subdial index as the sole source.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
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sf trade 0x435d84cc78bf67a2513c4ddf63dc40f21b6dfc944a4c33d364207bb69a9fbf47 yes 100