Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,750 (HIGH) by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $41,750 (HIGH) by April 30?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with the price collapsing 68% over seven days (from 19¢ to 6¢) while maintaining $1.04M open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the position is trapped or illiquid.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with the price collapsing 68% over seven days (from 19¢ to 6¢) while maintaining $1.04M open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the position is trapped or illiquid. The 41,700% implied yield on the YES side is mathematically nonsensical given the 6% probability and 14-day timeframe, indicating severe mispricing or a broken pricing model rather than a genuine opportunity. With realized volatility at 1,224%, a high cliff risk index of 16, and the index needing to surge roughly 60% from current levels in two weeks, this appears to be a distressed liquidation or data error rather than a functioning prediction market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x51ce3d21631e6566f15fe95e99790e8673760ddccd387ecd9ba2d8abe5791e94 yes 100