Will the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,000 (HIGH) by April 30?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.56M open interest and a massive 86,062% implied yield on the YES side—a red flag suggesting the 3¢ price may not reflect true consensus probability given the 14-day expiration window. The Audemars Piguet Index would need to surge approximately 43% from current levels to hit $42,000, and with realized volatility at 2,390%, the market is pricing in extraordinary price swings, yet the neutral regime score (0.409) and declining 7-day price action (4¢ to 3¢) suggest skepticism about such a move materializing before April 30, 2026. The high cliff risk index (32) combined with zero recent trading activity indicates this is a stale, potentially mispriced market where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity rather than genuine opportunity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, for any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Subdial — specifically, the Audemars Piguet Index chart available at https://subdial.com/market. The daily values in USD shown on the chart will be used for resolution. This market refers to prices displayed in USD. To switch the display currency, use the currency toggle located at the left beneath the graph and select “USD” instead of “GBP”. This market will resolve as soon as the price shown on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart reaches the listed price, or once the value for April 30, 2026, is published, and the listed price has not been reached. If no data for April 30, 2026, has been published by May 14, 2026, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. Revisions made to published data points on the Bloomberg x Subdial Watch Index for Audemars Piguet chart before the April 30, 2026 data point has been published will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from resolving this market. Revisions made after the April 30, 2026, data point has been finalized will not be considered.

Indicators

Regime

Trade