Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 70% probability of California gas exceeding $7.60 by year-end 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 944.5% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 70% probability of California gas exceeding $7.60 by year-end 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 944.5% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 7-day price collapse from 48¢ to 13¢ combined with minimal 24-hour volume of just $20 suggests the market lacks depth and may not reflect informed consensus, making this contract highly speculative despite the substantial open interest of $1,232.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.60 yes 100