Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in a 92% probability that California gas prices will exceed $7.20 by year-end 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 447% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or extreme tail risk skepticism among traders.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 92% probability that California gas prices will exceed $7.20 by year-end 2026, yet the extraordinarily high implied yield of 447% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or extreme tail risk skepticism among traders. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 64¢ to 24¢ combined with realized volatility of 977% indicates sharp recent repricing away from the bullish scenario, though thin 24-hour volume of just $8.78 raises questions about whether this price discovery is reliable. With 259 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 3, this appears to be a speculative position where the market is heavily discounting the likelihood of sustained $7.20+ prices despite the current 92¢ quote.
Resolution rules
If average regular gas prices for California are strictly greater than $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (3)
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.20 yes 100