Will average gas prices be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 64% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 56%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $6.20
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
56¢
Above $6.40
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
161 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.80
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.40
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.20
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.00
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.80
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.60
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.60
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.40
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.40
Analysis
This probability indicates traders believe there's roughly a 45% chance average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $6.20 by year-end 2026. Current market pricing suggests traders see prices in the $6.20-$6.80 range as most likely, with higher thresholds ($7.20+) priced significantly lower. Gas prices depend primarily on global crude oil supply and demand dynamics, OPEC production decisions, and geopolitical disruptions, alongside domestic refinery capacity and seasonal summer-to-fall demand patterns. The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy also influences fuel prices through broader economic activity. The primary uncertainty resolver will be actual pump prices reported through the remainder of 2026, particularly how crude oil markets respond to any supply shocks or demand shifts in the coming months. Contract liquidity and volume remain modest, suggesting limited institutional participation relative to larger prediction markets.
- ›Crude oil prices have traded $70-85/barrel year-to-date; a sustained move above $90 would materially increase likelihood of $7.40+ gas prices
- ›OPEC+ production cuts and compliance rates directly affect global supply; any production increases or geopolitical disruptions (Middle East, Russia) create upside price pressure
- ›U.S. refinery utilization and maintenance schedules impact supply; summer 2026 refinery outages historically tighten markets and raise prices
- ›Federal Reserve rate trajectory influences inflation expectations and economic demand; higher rates typically soften demand and pressure prices downward
- ›Historical seasonal patterns show gas prices typically decline September-December, which market pricing partially reflects in current contract valuations
What moved the line
- Jul 20Above $7.00↓11pp31→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Above $6.20↓11pp61→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Above $6.20↑7pp52→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Above $7.60↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Above $6.80↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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