Will average gas prices be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026
Leader sits at 84% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $6.20
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
Above $6.40
Spread
24pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
208 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
will average gas prices be above or below $
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.40
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $8.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $8.00
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-8.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.60
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.40 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.40
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.40
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.20
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.00 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.00
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.00
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.80
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.80
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $7.60 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $7.60
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-7.60
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.20
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.20
Will average **gas prices** be above or below $6.80 by Dec 31, 2026?: Above $6.80
KXAAAGASMAXCA-26DEC31-6.80
Analysis
Markets are pricing in a 93% likelihood that average U.S. gas prices will exceed $4.40 per gallon by the end of 2026, with a sharp dropoff in probability at higher thresholds (82% above $4.50, 31% above $7.60). This reflects expectations that prices will remain elevated relative to historical lows but well below 2022 peaks. The primary drivers are crude oil supply constraints, OPEC production decisions, and global demand patterns, offset by potential demand destruction if prices spike or recession pressures emerge. Seasonal factors—summer driving season peaking in June-August—and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve level will influence near-term volatility. The contract structure reveals market consensus clustering around the $4.40–$4.50 range as the most probable outcome, suggesting traders expect prices to stay in a moderate-to-elevated band rather than revert to pre-2022 levels or spike toward crisis pricing.
- ›Current U.S. average gas price as of early May 2026 and spot crude oil prices relative to the $4.40 threshold, establishing the baseline for 7-month price averaging
- ›Crude oil production levels from OPEC and non-OPEC producers (U.S., Russia, others) and any announced supply adjustments through December 2026
- ›Summer 2026 gasoline demand data (June–August driving season) and any recessions or demand-destruction events that would suppress consumption and prices
- ›Geopolitical disruptions to oil transit routes (Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal) or major producing nations that could constrain supply unexpectedly
- ›Strategic Petroleum Reserve refill or drawdown decisions by the U.S. government and their timing, which directly affects fuel availability and pricing pressure
What moved the line
- Jun 2Above $6.20↓68pp76→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above $6.40↓47pp56→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above $6.40↑34pp21→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Above $6.20↑31pp40→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above $7.00↓23pp44→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 85.99 USD/Bbl on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDTabove $91.99last 97% · 1d
- Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026$96.00 to $96.99last 38% · 1d
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $110last 49% · 4d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.920last 85% · 5d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.975Above 4.540last 96% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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