Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 30¢ (30% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 408.5% and 50.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	408.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	50.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	181%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	14.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.12	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?

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