SimpleFunctions
KalshiJun 1, 202620 days left

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $95000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

7¢
$24K volume
$15K liquidity
46% of event volume

Event outcomes

6

Family volume

$53K

Best sibling

Above $90,000.00 20¢

Ticker

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MAY31-9500000

Market snapshot

Above $95,000.00 in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will BTC trimmed mean be above $95000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 7¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $3K. In the Will BTC trimmed mean be above $ family, this outcome ranks #5 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC.

Outcome

Above $95,000.00

Family rank

#5 of 6

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 1, 2026

24h volume

$3K

Family context

6 outcomes · Will BTC trimmed mean be above $

Quote range

4¢-60¢

Family leader

Above $85,000.00 60¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 7:23 PM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MAY31-9500000. Family volume: $53K.

Price history

7¢ current

+5¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 1, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 7¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
6¢1.4K
5¢9.0K
4¢8.0K
3¢9.2K
2¢5.4K
AskSize
7¢512
8¢2.0K
9¢1.4K
10¢1.9K
11¢3.4K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the price of BTC after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026 is ever above $ 95000.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26MAY31-9500000

SF Signal
SF Index
11702.66
Regime
taker

Event family

Will BTC trimmed mean be above $.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$53K

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Above $85,000.00 60¢

Current share

5%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

28087.5%

IY (No)

114.4%

Adj IY

11703%

CRI

16

Overround

0.4%

LAS

0.17

Regime

taker

Score

0.636

Observability

direct

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

28087.5%
114.4%
Adj IY
11703%
16
Overround
0.4%
LAS
0.17

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.