Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Leader sits at 12% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $75,000.00
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Above $77,500.00
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$54K
liquid
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $75,000.00
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7500000
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $77500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $77,500.00
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-7750000
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $82500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $82,500.00
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-8250000
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $80000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $80,000.00
KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUN30-8000000
What moved the line
- Jun 3Above $75,000.00↓14pp40→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Above $75,000.00↓12pp26→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above $75,000.00↓9pp49→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Above $77,500.00↓9pp32→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Above $77,500.00↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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