Will BTC trimmed mean be above $87500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$50K
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will BTC trimmed mean be above $75000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026
Analysis
This market estimates a 3% chance that Bitcoin's trimmed mean price will exceed $87,500 by April 30, 2026. The low probability reflects Bitcoin's price movements over the past six months and near-term market conditions. The main drivers of this probability are Bitcoin's recent trading range and volatility patterns; a significant rally would be required to reach the $87,500 threshold within the specified timeframe. The April 30 deadline provides roughly ten months for price appreciation, meaning sustained demand and favorable market conditions would be necessary to push the probability higher. Conversely, continued sideways trading or downward pressure would likely keep the probability depressed. The broader crypto market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and any major regulatory announcements will influence whether traders adjust this forecast higher or lower.
- ›Bitcoin's current price relative to the $87,500 target and historical volatility over the preceding six-month period
- ›The implied annualized return needed to reach $87,500 from current levels by April 30, 2026, versus typical Bitcoin price movements
- ›Trading volume and liquidity on major exchanges, which affect the feasibility of sustained price movements in either direction
- ›Macroeconomic factors including interest rate expectations and inflation data through April 2026
- ›Historical seasonal patterns in Bitcoin pricing during Q1-Q2 timeframes and their correlation to this specific probability level
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In bitcoin
Related reading
Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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