Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?
Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 202
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$937K
liquid
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1103-T63899.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1103-T63999.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1103-T63799.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T63999.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T64249.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1103-T63699.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1103-T64099.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T63749.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T64749.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T62999.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T64499.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T62499.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T62749.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T63249.99
Bitcoin price on Aug 11, 2026?
KXBTCD-26AUG1117-T63499.99
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Bitcoin price action: ETF inflows push near-term odds higher
Bitcoin’s Aug 7, 2026 settlement price saw a sharp 5¢ move on the $63,000 tranche, driven by the largest single-day ETF net inflow in three weeks. The monthly trimmed mean above $65,000 now trades at 73¢, reflecting renewed bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin Range-Bound but ETH Strength Points to Altcoin Season
Bitcoin prediction markets are steady with the Aug 7 price centered around $67K (67¢). Ethereum has a 59% chance of being above $2000 by end of August (ETHMAXMON). The crypto market is showing signs of rotation into altcoins, with XRP and SOL also seeing modest upward bias. No major catalyst today, but ETH’s relative strength is notable.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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