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ResolvedFinal: $76,500 or above. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (Jul 23, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·15 source contracts·Kalshi 15·closed just now·Closes May 8, 2026 · 0d

Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?

Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

77%
runner-up 97¢leader 77¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

97¢

Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 202

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$1.6M

liquid

Closes

May 8, 2026

0 days

Venue

Kalshi

15 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 96% (6 days, 6 points)Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 96% on 2026-07-22Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 96% (6 days, 6 points)Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 96% on 2026-07-22Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 98% (6 days, 6 points)Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?: 98% on 2026-07-22
Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?96¢Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?96¢Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?98¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 6d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?23pp3861¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?21pp4667¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?20pp5575¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?20pp3252¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Bitcoin price on Jul 24, 2026?19pp6281¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in bitcoin

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in bitcoin.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.