Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?
Leader sits at 97% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Will the gold close price be
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the gold close price be above 4
Will the gold close price be above 4420.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4420.99
Will the gold close price be above 4120.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4120.99
Will the gold close price be above 4100.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4100.99
Will the gold close price be above 4140.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4140.99
Will the gold close price be above 4320.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4320.99
Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4080.99
Will the gold close price be above 4160.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4160.99
Will the gold close price be above 4500.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4500.99
Will the gold close price be above 4060.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4060.99
Will the gold close price be above 4300.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4300.99
Will the gold close price be above 4580.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4580.99
Will the gold close price be above 4620.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4620.99
Will the gold close price be above 4600.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4600.99
Will the gold close price be above 4560.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4560.99
Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
KXGOLDW-26JUN1217-T4180.99
What moved the line
- Jun 7Will the gold close price be above 4500.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?↓5pp12→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?↑3pp73→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Will the gold close price be above 4300.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?↓3pp53→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Will the gold close price be above 4420.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?↓3pp27→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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