Will Carson Beck be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?
Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Carson Beck be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 16,217% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 302% on the No side, suggesting the 47¢ price may significantly undervalue Beck's chances or reflects severe liquidity constraints given the $80.61 open interest and 62¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 16,217% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 302% on the No side, suggesting the 47¢ price may significantly undervalue Beck's chances or reflects severe liquidity constraints given the $80.61 open interest and 62¢ spread. The massive 1,888% realized volatility and high cliff risk (7/10) indicate this is a highly unstable micro-market with only $39.61 in 24-hour volume, making the price potentially unreliable with just 17 days to expiry. The recent 1¢ price decline over seven days and 4.7 information arrivals per hour suggest active repricing, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether this reflects genuine mispricing or simply illiquid micro-cap dynamics.
Resolution rules
If Carson Beck is the 3rd Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P3-CBEC yes 100