Will Clint Twedt-Ball be the Democratic nominee for IA-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Clint Twedt-Ball be the Democratic nominee for IA-02?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This extremely illiquid market shows a sharp disconnect between its theoretical payoff and practical tradability, with only $50 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite an astronomical 2096% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This extremely illiquid market shows a sharp disconnect between its theoretical payoff and practical tradability, with only $50 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite an astronomical 2096% implied yield on the Yes side. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 9¢ price, and the recent price movement from 2¢ to 3¢ suggests emerging interest, though the cliff risk index of 32 indicates meaningful uncertainty about eventual resolution mechanics. With 563 days to expiry and a Democratic primary still years away, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal liquidity for entry or exit.
Resolution rules
If Clint Twedt-Ball wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 IA-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIAPRIMARY-02D26-CTWE yes 100