SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 12, 20261 days left

Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in April?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 49¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 49¢ bid, 50¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

49¢
$66K volume
$34K liquidity
403% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$16K

Best sibling

Above 0.4% 6¢

Ticker

KXCPICORE-26APR-T0.3

Market snapshot

Above 0.3% in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in April?. The displayed quote is 49¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $6K. In the Will CPI Core rise more than family, this outcome ranks #4 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Outcome

Above 0.3%

Family rank

#4 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

49¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 12, 2026

24h volume

$6K

Family context

16 outcomes · Will CPI Core rise more than

Quote range

1¢-99¢

Family leader

Above 0.0% 99¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 12m ago

Venue identifier: KXCPICORE-26APR-T0.3. Family volume: $16K.

Price history

49¢ current

+1¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 11, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

49 / 50¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
49¢1.0K
48¢1.0K
47¢323
21¢1
11¢1
AskSize
50¢1.6K
51¢4.0K
52¢1.0K
65¢241
68¢500

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy for April 2026, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, increases by above 0.3%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 12, 2026

Identifier

KXCPICORE-26APR-T0.3

SF Signal
SF Index
50222.41
Regime
taker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

1

VR

0.66

IAR

0.5/h

EE

20.000

Overround

0.7%

LAS

0.02

Regime

taker

Score

0.635

Observability

high

Event type

data_release

Full indicator table

1
VR
0.66
IAR
0.5/h
20.000
Overround
0.7%
LAS
0.02
Residual VR
-5.75

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinionessay

Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders

Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Technicalrisk

Reading Prediction Market Orderbooks: Liquidity, Spread, and When to Enter

How to read prediction market orderbooks on Kalshi. Covers bid-ask spread analysis, liquidity scoring, executable edge calculation, and when thin markets are opportunities vs traps.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.