Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in May
Leader sits at 95% across 17 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 0.0%
Outcomes
17
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Above 0.1%
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Sep 11, 2026
65 days
Venue
Kalshi
17 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will CPI Core rise more than 0
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in June?: Above 0.0%
KXCPICORE-26JUN-T0.0
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in June?: Above 0.1%
KXCPICORE-26JUN-T0.1
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in June?: Above 0.2%
KXCPICORE-26JUN-T0.2
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in July?: Above 0.4%
KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.4
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.3% in July?: Above 0.3%
KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.3
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in July?: Above 0.2%
KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.2
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in July?: Above 0.1%
KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.1
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in July?: Above 0.0%
KXCPICORE-26JUL-T0.0
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.9% in August?: Above 0.9%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.9
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.8% in August?: Above 0.8%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.8
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.7% in August?: Above 0.7%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.7
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.6% in August?: Above 0.6%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.6
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.5% in August?: Above 0.5%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.5
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.4% in August?: Above 0.4%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.4
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.2% in August?: Above 0.2%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.2
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.1% in August?: Above 0.1%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.1
Will CPI Core rise more than 0.0% in August?: Above 0.0%
KXCPICORE-26AUG-T0.0
Analysis
This market prices the probability that core Consumer Price Index inflation will rise by more than 0.3% in May 2026 at 96%, indicating traders view a monthly increase above that threshold as highly likely. The elevated probability reflects recent inflation trends and the market's assessment of underlying price pressures from labor costs, supply chains, and demand conditions. May's CPI data, typically released in early June, will be the primary resolution event. Traders are pricing in sustained monthly increases; the 43-cent price on the 0.3% threshold versus 13 cents on 0.4% suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether gains exceed 0.4%, though both scenarios are considered probable. This framework allows participants to bet on inflation's intensity and whether monthly momentum remains elevated or begins moderating.
- ›Core CPI's monthly trajectory in recent releases—if April came in above 0.3%, May's pricing reflects expectation of similar momentum
- ›Labor market tightness and wage growth rates, which historically drive core inflation excluding food and energy
- ›Recent Federal Reserve policy stance and market expectations about interest rate paths, which influence inflation expectations
- ›The gap between the 0.3% contract (43¢) and 0.4% contract (13¢) indicates meaningful probability mass between 0.3–0.4% and lower confidence above 0.4%
- ›Supply-side factors including goods and shelter costs, which comprise the largest components of core CPI
What moved the line
- Jul 2Above 0.2%↑42pp8→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Above 0.2%↑30pp5→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 4Above 0.2%↓26pp53→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Above 0.0%↓23pp83→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Above 0.1%↑21pp45→66¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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