Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?
Prediction markets currently give a 54% probability that Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-2?. This contract trades at 54¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 823% and a dramatic 7-day collapse from 6¢ to 40¢, suggesting significant new information arrived about Powell's candidacy prospects.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 823% and a dramatic 7-day collapse from 6¢ to 40¢, suggesting significant new information arrived about Powell's candidacy prospects. The 272.9% implied yield on the Yes side is unusually high relative to the 201-day timeframe, indicating either substantial uncertainty about the nomination process or that traders view current pricing as mispriced given recent momentum. Liquidity is modest at $4,112.59 open interest with a tight 2¢ spread, and the high info arrival rate of 0.8/hour suggests this race remains actively discussed and subject to further developments.
Resolution rules
If Denise Powell wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NE-2 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNE2D-26-DPOW yes 100