Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing May 26, 2026. This market prices an extremely unlikely dual endorsement scenario at just 15¢, generating a stratospheric 4511% implied yield on Yes contracts despite zero 24-hour volume and modest $10,383 open interest.
Analysis
This market prices an extremely unlikely dual endorsement scenario at just 15¢, generating a stratospheric 4511% implied yield on Yes contracts despite zero 24-hour volume and modest $10,383 open interest. The recent price movement from 14¢ to 17¢ suggests slight accumulation of bullish positions, though the $0 daily volume and tight 1¢ spread indicate illiquidity that could amplify slippage on larger trades. With 40 days to resolution and a cliff risk index of 5, this appears to be a niche contrarian bet on an improbable political outcome where Trump simultaneously backs two competing candidates in a runoff scenario.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump publicly endorses John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-BOTH yes 100