SimpleFunctions

Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of May 24, 2026

100-119 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will Donald Trump make.

Price history

15¢ current

+9¢
10¢20¢
May 24, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from May 24, 2026 to May 30, 2026 is between 100 and 119, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

100-119

Rank

#3 of 9

Leader

120-139 21¢

Range

2¢-21¢

Family volume

$17K

Identifier

KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY30-B109

May 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

15¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 10:08 AM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

15¢

Ask

16¢

Spread

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#3 of 9

9 outcomes · Will Donald Trump make

Closes

May 31, 2026

Family volume

$17K

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 16¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
15¢385
14¢631
13¢33
12¢2
11¢409
AskSize
16¢439
17¢11
18¢50
20¢300
21¢19

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from May 24, 2026 to May 30, 2026 is between 100 and 119, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY30-B109

SF Signal
SF Index
38480.62
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

6

VR

0.29

IAR

0.4/h

Overround

0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6
VR
0.29
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.