SimpleFunctions

Donald Trump make between 200 and 220 Truth Social posts the week of May 24, 2026

200-220 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 9 inside Will Donald Trump make.

Price history

12¢ current

+8¢
0¢10¢
May 24, 2026May 24, 2026

Contract brief

If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from May 24, 2026 to May 30, 2026 is between 200 and 220, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

200-220

Rank

#4 of 9

Leader

120-139 15¢

Range

4¢-15¢

Family volume

$4K

Identifier

KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY30-B210

May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 6m ago

Implied probability

12¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 6m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

13¢

Spread

24h volume

$935

Family rank

#4 of 9

9 outcomes · Will Donald Trump make

Closes

May 31, 2026

Family volume

$4K

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 13¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
12¢365
11¢155
8¢50
7¢149
6¢43
AskSize
13¢1.1K
14¢27
15¢50
17¢100
21¢225

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from May 24, 2026 to May 30, 2026 is between 200 and 220, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY30-B210

SF Signal
SF Index
41090.98
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

41091.0%

IY (No)

764.1%

Adj IY

41091%

CRI

7

RV

2620%

VR

0.91

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

41091.0%
764.1%
Adj IY
41091%
7
RV
2620%
VR
0.91
IAR
1.5/h
Overround
-0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.