Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026
Leader sits at 35% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
140-159
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
120-139
Spread
14pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 28, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump make
Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 160-179
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B169
Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 140-159
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B149
Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 200-220
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B210
Will Donald Trump make above 220 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: >220
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-T220
Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 120-139
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B129
Will Donald Trump make between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 21, 2026?: 180-199
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26JUN27-B189
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Donald Trump will post between 80 and 99 times on Truth Social during the week of April 19, 2026. Currently priced at 33%, it reflects traders' assessment that this specific posting volume is less likely than adjacent ranges. Trump's posting frequency has historically varied based on news cycles, campaign activity, and legal developments. The main driver of this probability is the distribution of expected activity across the six available outcome ranges. As April 2026 approaches, actual baseline posting patterns and any major political events will clarify whether this mid-range estimate proves accurate. The contract resolves based on verifiable Truth Social post counts during that specific week.
- ›Historical Truth Social posting frequency in comparable weeks with similar news environments
- ›Whether April 2026 coincides with significant campaign, legal, or political announcements that typically increase or decrease posting volume
- ›The concentration of probability mass in the 160-179 range (33%) suggests traders expect substantially higher posting activity than the 80-99 band
- ›Seasonal or pattern-based variations in Trump's posting habits across different weeks in the year
- ›The relatively wide distribution across six outcome bands indicates material uncertainty about the baseline posting rate in April 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 22180-199↑5pp8→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22160-179↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23140-159↑3pp20→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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