Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026
Leader sits at 43% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
140-159
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
160-179
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
May 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Donald Trump make between
Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of May 3, 2026?: 140-159
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY09-B149
Will Donald Trump make between 180 and 199 Truth Social posts the week of May 3, 2026?: 180-199
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY09-B189
Will Donald Trump make between 160 and 179 Truth Social posts the week of May 3, 2026?: 160-179
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY09-B169
Will Donald Trump make between 200 and 220 Truth Social posts the week of May 3, 2026?: 200-220
KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26MAY09-B210
What moved the line
- May 7160-179↑7pp23→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 7140-159↑4pp24→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 8140-159↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- May 8160-179↑4pp30→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.