Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?
This contract is priced at 84¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 83¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 2¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
3
Family volume
$20K
Best sibling
Before Jun 1, 2026 92¢
Ticker
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Price history
84¢ current
+8¢Orderbook snapshot
83 / 85¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 15, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
Will Donald Trump visit China before.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Jul 1, 2026 95¢
Current share
85%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Trump Tariffs 2026: Trade War Risk with China & Mexico and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Deep‑dive guide to Trump’s 2025–26 tariff agenda, trade war risk with China and Mexico, macro and sector impacts, and how to use prediction markets to trade Trump tariffs 2026.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 84% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.