How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 40%, Polymarket at 21% — a 19pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
13 contracts
Polymarket
21%
5 contracts
Cross-venue gap
19pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$91K
18 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$33K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 40¢ · Polymarket 21¢ · 19pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (21¢, 5 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (40¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?: China
KXTRUMPCOUNTRIES-27JAN01-CHI
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in May 2026?: Yes
KXNEWTARIFFS-26MAY-JUN01
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 40.0% for May 7, 2026?: Yes
KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26MAY07
Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jun 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-JUN01
Will Donald Trump issue any official announcement (e.g., Truth Social post) on naming his nominee for Attorney General before May 8, 2026?: Before May 8, 2026
KXAGANNOUNCE-26-MAY08
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-JUL01
Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate Runoff before May 26, 2026?: Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton
KXTXRUNOFFENDORSE-26MAY26-DJT-BOTH
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Cluster 2
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?: 15s+
0xdbe51d…0282
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?: 10–15s
0xcc2582…341b
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?: No Handshake
0xbdfaa0…aa4d
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?: 6–10s
0xe33f8b…5f8f
How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet?: 2–6s
0x7200d6…0fb1
Cluster 3
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
What moved the line
- May 2Before May 15, 2026↑11pp65→76¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 28No Handshake↑9pp5→14¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Yes↓8pp25→17¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Before May 15, 2026↑7pp76→83¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Yes↓7pp32→25¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in trump.
In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.