Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$26K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
11 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
0xb215de…6f66
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that China will impose a blockade on Taiwan between now and June 30, 2026. The 13% estimate suggests traders view such action as unlikely but material. The probability sits at a six-percentage-point gap between venues, with Kalshi traders assigning higher risk than Polymarket participants. Key drivers include current military posturing, statements from Beijing and Taipei, incidents in the Taiwan Strait, and U.S. policy responses. The period through June 30 is relatively short for major geopolitical escalation, which helps explain the modest probability. Major developments in cross-strait tensions, military exercises, or international statements could quickly shift assessments. April-June typically sees seasonal patterns in military activity in the region, making real-time monitoring important for tracking whether conditions are normalizing or deteriorating.
- ›Current Chinese military exercise frequency and stated intentions regarding Taiwan as reported by defense ministries and intelligence assessments
- ›Taiwan Strait transit incidents and vessel activity levels, which indicate baseline tension between routine commercial traffic and military provocations
- ›Official statements from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington regarding defense commitments and red lines, which frame escalation thresholds
- ›Any significant military incidents or accidents that could trigger unintended escalation mechanisms
- ›Time remaining until June 30 relative to historical precedent for blockade implementations, which typically require significant advance positioning
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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In china
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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