Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Ed Diehl be the Republican nominee for Governor in Oregon?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. The market is pricing Ed Diehl at 43% to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Oregon, but the extreme 436% realized volatility and 4.05 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, particularly given the asymmetric implied yields (92.9% for Yes versus 44.8% for No).
Analysis
The market is pricing Ed Diehl at 43% to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Oregon, but the extreme 436% realized volatility and 4.05 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, particularly given the asymmetric implied yields (92.9% for Yes versus 44.8% for No). With only $314 in 24-hour volume against $9,292 open interest and 566 days until expiry, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential execution challenges and widening the risk of sharp repricing if new information arrives. The 1.6 information arrivals per hour and neutral regime indicate this market is actively trading on incoming news, but the modest 1¢ spread masks the underlying illiquidity that could make entry or exit costly for larger positions.
Also on polymarket at 22¢(Δ +15¢)
Resolution rules
If Ed Diehl wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Oregon Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGOVORNOMR-26-EDIE yes 100