SimpleFunctions
KalshiJun 1, 202618 days left

Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 14 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 34¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 24¢ bid, 36¢ ask, 12¢ spread.

Implied probability

34¢
$42K volume
$23K liquidity
915% of event volume

Event outcomes

8

Family volume

$5K

Best sibling

Above $2,750.00 6¢

Ticker

KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-250000

Market snapshot

Above $2,500.00 in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 34¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $2K. In the Will ETH trimmed mean be above $ family, this outcome ranks #1 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 14, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Above $2,500.00

Family rank

#1 of 8

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

34¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 1, 2026

24h volume

$2K

Family context

8 outcomes · Will ETH trimmed mean be above $

Quote range

1¢-24¢

Family leader

Above $2,500.00 24¢

Last updated

May 14, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-250000. Family volume: $5K.

Price history

34¢ current

8¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 1, 2026May 14, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

24 / 36¢

Kalshi
12¢ spread
BidSize
24¢209
18¢244
17¢376
16¢332
15¢356
AskSize
36¢53
46¢175
47¢12
48¢672
49¢1.0K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026 is ever above $ 2500.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-250000

SF Signal
SF Index
4069.33
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will ETH trimmed mean be above $.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$5K

Outcomes

8

Highest price

Above $2,500.00 24¢

Current share

42%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4340.6%

IY (No)

961.2%

Adj IY

4069%

CRI

2

RV

929%

VR

1.53

Regime

neutral

Score

0.364

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

4340.6%
961.2%
Adj IY
4069%
2
RV
929%
VR
1.53
IAR
3.8/h
LAS
0.06

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.