SimpleFunctions
KalshiJun 1, 202620 days left

Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

14¢
$52K volume
$37K liquidity
353% of event volume

Event outcomes

8

Family volume

$15K

Best sibling

Above $3,500.00 1¢

Ticker

KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-275000

Market snapshot

Above $2,750.00 in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2750.00 by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026?. The displayed quote is 14¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $4K. In the Will ETH trimmed mean be above $ family, this outcome ranks #2 of 8 by current quote across 8 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC.

Outcome

Above $2,750.00

Family rank

#2 of 8

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

14¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jun 1, 2026

24h volume

$4K

Family context

8 outcomes · Will ETH trimmed mean be above $

Quote range

1¢-51¢

Family leader

Above $2,500.00 51¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:23 PM UTC · 1m ago

Venue identifier: KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-275000. Family volume: $15K.

Price history

14¢ current

+2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 1, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

13 / 14¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
13¢162
12¢640
10¢3.0K
7¢139
6¢2.0K
AskSize
14¢525
15¢538
16¢96
17¢3.0K
26¢142

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If the price of ETH after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026 is ever above $ 2750.00, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 1, 2026

Identifier

KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26MAY31-275000

SF Signal
SF Index
11053.18
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will ETH trimmed mean be above $.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$15K

Outcomes

8

Highest price

Above $2,500.00 51¢

Current share

27%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

11974.0%

IY (No)

267.4%

Adj IY

11053%

CRI

7

RV

1080%

VR

1.10

Regime

neutral

Score

0.364

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

11974.0%
267.4%
Adj IY
11053%
7
RV
1080%
VR
1.10
IAR
1.4/h
Overround
-0.3%
LAS
0.08

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.