Will ETH trimmed mean be above $3000.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
3%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026
Will ETH trimmed mean be above $2500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jun 30, 2026?: Above $2,500.00
KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JUN30-250000
Analysis
This contract prices the probability that Ethereum's trimmed mean price will exceed $3,000 by April 30, 2026. The 71% probability reflects market confidence in moderate Ethereum appreciation over the next 11 months. The level is primarily driven by two competing forces: bullish factors including institutional adoption trends and Ethereum's historical volatility, which could push prices higher, versus bearish pressure from macroeconomic conditions and regulatory uncertainty that could suppress gains. The key resolution point will be the actual trimmed-mean price calculation on April 30, 2026, which aggregates prices across major exchanges to establish the official settlement value. Between now and that date, significant catalysts include major protocol upgrades, changes in U.S. crypto regulation, shifts in institutional investment flows, and movements in Bitcoin prices, which typically correlate with Ethereum's direction.
- ›ETH trading at approximately $1,800–$2,200 as of May 2026 would require roughly 40–65% appreciation to reach $3,000, a substantial but historically plausible move
- ›The highest-volume contract ($2,500 threshold) trades at 72¢, indicating traders assign 72% probability to a more modest target, suggesting diminishing confidence at each higher price level
- ›Regulatory announcements from the SEC, CFTC, or international regulators in the next 6–12 months would materially affect institutional investment appetite and volatility assumptions
- ›Trimmed-mean methodology removes outliers across major exchanges, making manipulation harder but also reducing single-exchange price events from affecting settlement
- ›No major Ethereum network upgrade or catalyst event is currently scheduled between May 2026 and April 30, 2026, shifting focus to broader market conditions and macro trends
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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