SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 14, 2026225 days left

Will Fabio Quartararo be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?

This contract is priced at 6¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 5¢ spread.

Implied probability

6¢
$359 volume
$309 liquidity
92% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$391

Best sibling

Marc Marquez 16¢

Ticker

KXMOTOGP-26-FAQU

Price history

6¢ current

25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 3, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 5¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
5¢125
6¢250
94¢4.9K
97¢20
98¢48

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Fabio Quartararo wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 14, 2026

Identifier

KXMOTOGP-26-FAQU

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

2543.4%

IY (No)

10.4%

Adj IY

1272%

CRI

16

Overround

0.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

sports

Full indicator table

2543.4%
10.4%
Adj IY
1272%
16
Overround
0.9%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

Opinionanalysis

Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens

Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index