Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$83
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 14, 2026
170 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Marc Marquez be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Marc Marquez
KXMOTOGP-26-MAMA
Cluster 2
Will Jorge Martin be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Jorge Martin be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Jorge Martin
KXMOTOGP-26-JOMA
Cluster 3
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Marco Bezzecchi
KXMOTOGP-26-MABE
Cluster 4
Will Fabio Quartararo be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Fabio Quartararo be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Fabio Quartararo
KXMOTOGP-26-FAQU
Cluster 5
Will Fabio Di Giannantonio be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion
Will Fabio Di Giannantonio be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?: Fabio Di Giannantonio
KXMOTOGP-26-FADI
Cluster 6
Will Alex Marquez be the MotoGP World Champion
Will Alex Marquez be the MotoGP World Champion?: Alex Marquez
KXMOTOGP-26-ALMA
Cluster 7
Will Fermin Aldeguer be the MotoGP World Champion
Will Fermin Aldeguer be the MotoGP World Champion?: Fermin Aldeguer
KXMOTOGP-26-FEAL
Analysis
This 22% probability reflects market expectations that Marc Marquez will win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship. Marquez remains a competitive force in the series, but faces established rivals and the inherent uncertainty of a full season where performance, reliability, and injuries all influence outcomes. The probability could shift based on early-season results, team performance consistency, and how competitive his bike setup remains throughout the year. The 2026 season structure and regulation changes may favor certain riders or manufactures over others. Meaningful updates will arrive from race results starting in March 2026 and continuing through the November finale, with mid-season performance being a critical indicator of title viability.
- ›Marquez's recent finishing positions and point accumulation relative to competitors through the first quarter of the season
- ›Engine and chassis reliability for his current manufacturer compared to rivals during testing and early races
- ›Regulatory changes or technical modifications in 2026 that favor or disadvantage his riding style or team's development approach
- ›Injury status and physical condition of Marquez and other title contenders entering and throughout the season
- ›Head-to-head performance gaps in qualifying and race pace versus the top 2-3 competitors based on completed events
What moved the line
- Jun 24Jorge Martin↓22pp24→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Marc Marquez↑18pp32→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Marc Marquez↑17pp8→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Marco Bezzecchi↑15pp16→31¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Marc Marquez↓11pp50→39¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this seasonlast 93% · 9d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 11d
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 22d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 22d
- WTA Tennis MatchesSemifinal match?: Elina Svitolinalast 50% · 23d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.