What is the current probability for "Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 59¢ (59% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 14, 2026. 237 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 148.1% and 160.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Marco Bezzecchi be the 2026 MotoGP World Champion?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Kalshi, closing December 14, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $157 open interest, making the 59¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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59¢

Bid/Ask 51/58¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $165.23·Closes Dec 14, 2026·237d remaining

KXMOTOGP-26-MABE

7-day price4 snapshots · 2 regime

51¢51¢ current

Apr 1350¢Apr 13

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $157 open interest, making the 59¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The implied yields are exceptionally high at 145-157% (risk-adjusted 79%), suggesting either significant mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to efficiently price Bezzecchi's championship odds relative to the 242-day timeframe. The modest 8¢ spread and flat price action (50¢ to 51¢ over seven days) indicate minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus on the Italian rider's 2026 prospects.

Resolution rules

If Marco Bezzecchi wins the 2026 MotoGP World Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 148.1%

IY (No) 160.5%

Adj IY 80%

CRI 1

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	148.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	160.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	80%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:56:40 PM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMOTOGP-26-MABE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →