Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Garrett Nussmeier be the 3rd Quarterback drafted?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. The 57¢ price reflects a significant recent rally of 8¢ over seven days, suggesting growing market confidence in Nussmeier's draft positioning, though the 17¢ spread and modest $236 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify volatility in the final 17 days.
Analysis
The 57¢ price reflects a significant recent rally of 8¢ over seven days, suggesting growing market confidence in Nussmeier's draft positioning, though the 17¢ spread and modest $236 daily volume indicate thin liquidity that could amplify volatility in the final 17 days. The extreme implied yields (3182% for Yes, 1591% for No) are artifacts of the low absolute price and small position sizes rather than genuine opportunity, typical of niche sports betting markets with minimal open interest of $2,771. With a Cliff Risk Index of 1 and neutral regime, this market appears fairly priced around consensus expectations, though the approaching May 3rd expiration warrants caution against large positions given execution risk in illiquid conditions.
Resolution rules
If Garrett Nussmeier is the 3rd Quarterback drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNFLDRAFTQB-26P3-GNUS yes 100