Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?

The Yes position offers an exceptionally high implied yield of 947.1% against a modest 13¢ price, reflecting extreme underpricing relative to the ~2.5-year timeframe and geopolitical volatility surrounding West Bank annexation. However, the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $3.18K in 24-hour volume against $15.5M open interest, creating execution risk for larger positions and suggesting the price may not reflect true consensus. The neutral regime score (0.409) and stable 7-day price action indicate the market has settled into equilibrium despite the high cliff risk index of 7, though traders should monitor for geopolitical catalysts that could trigger sharp repricing given the thin liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel officially annexes any territory in the West Bank by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the Israeli government claiming sovereignty over territory in the West Bank they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation. Qualifying examples of annexation include the 1980 Jerusalem Law, and the Golan Heights Law, however instances where Israeli settlers claiming administrative control over land in the West Bank without a formal annexation will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Israeli government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade