Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026.
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56¢Bid/Ask 54/55¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $657.09·OI $82,576.66·Closes Aug 1, 2026·101d remaining
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01
7-day price107 snapshots · 4 regime
66¢54¢ current
Apr 852¢Apr 21
Resolution rules
If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Label
neutral
Score
0.577
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:22:55 PM
SF edge 56.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political
Edges (3)
NO +56¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co
NO +46¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co
NO +15¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co
Has thesisIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM
Trade
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sf trade KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01 yes 100