Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 80% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 62%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 31, 2028
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
62¢
Before Jun 1, 2027
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jan 31, 2028
554 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-27JUN01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jan 31, 2028
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01
Analysis
This market estimates a 72% probability that Jerome Powell will step down from his Federal Reserve Board position before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Powell currently serves as Chair of the Federal Reserve, a separate role from his Board membership, though the two are typically held together. The elevated probability reflects uncertainty around potential policy changes, political pressure, or voluntary departure decisions. Key factors include Powell's stated intentions regarding his tenure, any changes in administration positions on Fed leadership, and major economic developments that might influence his decision-making timeline. The contract's relatively low trading volume ($3,388 in 24-hour activity) suggests limited market conviction compared to other political outcomes.
- ›Powell's current dual role as both Federal Reserve Chair and Board member, where Chair succession planning typically occurs around standard term transitions
- ›Political pressure and rhetoric from administration or Congress regarding Federal Reserve independence and leadership preferences
- ›Economic conditions and market volatility between May 2026 and January 2027 that could influence Powell's strategic decisions about tenure
- ›Powell's public statements and congressional testimony regarding his future plans and timeline for any transitions
- ›Scheduled Federal Reserve meetings and policy announcements that might trigger leadership changes or clarify his position
What moved the line
- Jul 23Before Jun 1, 2027↓4pp68→64¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Before Jan 31, 2028↓3pp83→80¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Before Dec 1, 2026↓3pp19→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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