Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?

Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 68¢ price implies a substantial 68% probability that Powell leaves the Fed Board before year-end 2026, yet the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $867.97 in 24-hour volume against $24,415.97 open interest—a ratio suggesting potential difficulty executing larger positions.

████████████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░

71¢

Bid/Ask 70/71¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $24,502.53·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27

7-day price120 snapshots · 8 regime

71¢70¢ current

Apr 865¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

The 68¢ price implies a substantial 68% probability that Powell leaves the Fed Board before year-end 2026, yet the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $867.97 in 24-hour volume against $24,415.97 open interest—a ratio suggesting potential difficulty executing larger positions. The extreme realized volatility of 275% and vol ratio of 3.31 indicate this contract experiences outsized price swings relative to implied volatility, while the asymmetric implied yields (72.6% Yes vs. 273.4% No) suggest the No side is significantly overpriced, creating a potential arbitrage opportunity for contrarian traders willing to accept the cliff risk near expiration in 259 days.

Resolution rules

If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 61.4%

IY (No) 334.5%

Adj IY 165%

CRI 2

EE 55.000

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	61.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	334.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	165%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	55.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.577

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 2:26:32 PM

SF edge 56.0¢ noObservability mediumEvent type political

Edges (2)

NO +56¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

NO +45¢thesis — Stagflation traps the Fed in an impossible triangle. Powell stays until Warsh co

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 2:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →