Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 31% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
31%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$340
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2028
557 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-27JUN01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jan 31, 2028
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27
Cluster 2
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
Jerome Powell is not currently under threat of being fired or leaving the Federal Reserve, as implied by prediction markets assigning only a 1% probability to him leaving before August 1, 2026. While long-term contracts show a 23% chance of departure by December 2026, there is no immediate indication of his removal from the Board of Governors. Furthermore, markets assign only a 7% chance that the DOJ will initiate or reopen a criminal investigation into him before 2027.
- ›1% chance of departure by August 2026
- ›23% probability of departure by December 2026
- ›7% chance of DOJ investigation initiated by 2027
- ›Stable current term
What moved the line
- Jul 17Before Jan 31, 2028↓3pp86→83¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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