Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 21%, Polymarket at 11% — a 10pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
15 contracts
Polymarket
11%
3 contracts
Cross-venue gap
10pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1.8M
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
103 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 11¢ · 10pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (11¢, 3 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (21¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-27JUN01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01
Cluster 2
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 20
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2028?
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-28JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-27JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-31JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2030?
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-30JAN01
Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?
KXWARSHOUT-26JUL-29JAN01
Cluster 3
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by
Cluster 4
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?
KXRATECUT-26DEC31
Cluster 5
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?: December 31
0xbb1e75…8463
Cluster 6
Will it be reported that the DOJ reopens or initiates a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 7
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?
KXMARTINDNCOUT-26MAY-JAN01
Cluster 8
Will Mike Lee be the next chair of the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary before Jan 1, 2028
Analysis
Market evidence is not negligible: kalshi "Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?" 71¢; kalshi "Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?" 75¢; kalshi "Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?" 39¢. Resolution windows can differ across venues, so treat the odds as contract-specific rather than one combined probability.
- ›10% probability of exit by Jan 2027
- ›3% chance of DOJ investigation
- ›High institutional stability
- ›Market-implied confidence in tenure
What moved the line
- Sep 19Will Kevin Warsh be out as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2031?↓40pp76→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?↑12pp12→24¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?↓7pp19→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Will Ken Martin be out as chair of the Democratic National Committee before Jan 1, 2027?↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Will the Federal Reserve cut rates before 2027?↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
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- Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027last 80% · 51d
- Will the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 be at least 10bpslast 70% · 51d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In fed rate
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The largest macro market today revolves around the Fed's September 2026 decision. The 'Hike by 25bps' contract sits at 56¢, implying a 56% chance of tightening. Over 1.7M contracts have traded across the rate decision complex, making it the most active macro event on the board. The hold-at-0bps market is trading at 41¢ with 1.2M volume alone.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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