Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?

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45%

20 markets·Kalshi + Polymarket

Kalshi

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44%

11 contracts

Polymarket

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46%

9 contracts

Analysis

Jerome Powell is currently serving as Fed Chair, and prediction markets assign a low 9% probability that the President will attempt to remove him before May 15, 2026. The likelihood of such an attempt occurring before the end of 2026 is priced significantly higher at 47%.

›9% chance of removal attempt by May 15, 2026
›47% chance of removal attempt by Jan 1, 2027
›Federal Funds Effective Rate at 3.64%
›Federal Reserve stability

Contracts

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?: Kevin Warsh

P$596K

94¢

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2029?: Kevin Warsh

K$19K

94¢

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?: May 15

P$3K

37¢

Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jun 1, 2026?: Before June

K$2K

26¢

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: June 30

P$1K

89¢

Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027

K$1K

34¢

Will Rand Paul vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?: Rand Paul

K$1K

44¢

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?: May 31

P$1K

81¢

How many Senators vote to confirm as Chairman of the Federal Reserve?: 54

K$784

10¢

K$443