Will Jerome Powell be removed as Fed Chair?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$523
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 31, 2028
602 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26AUG01-27
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26SEP01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26DEC01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-27JUN01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Jan 31, 2028
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-28JAN31
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26NOV01
Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXLEAVEPOWELLGOV-26OCT01
Cluster 2
Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027
Analysis
Jerome Powell has not been removed from his position as a member of the Federal Reserve board. Prediction markets currently show only a 12% probability that the President will attempt to remove him from his role as Chair or Board member before January 1, 2027.
- ›12% chance of firing attempt
- ›45% chance of resignation before 2027
- ›Fed independence expectations
- ›Stable Fed board status
What moved the line
- Jun 6Before Oct 1, 2026↓10pp24→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Before Nov 1, 2026↓5pp30→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Before Aug 1, 2026↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 47% · 1d
- How many Federal Reserve posts on X the week ending on Jun 4, 2026last 65% · 3d
- What will Jerome Powell say during Acceptance Remarks At the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award Ceremonylast 84% · 6d
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%last 6% · 8d
- When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chairlast 96% · 15d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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