What is the current probability for "Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 7, 2027. 260 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4533.9% and 4.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 7, 2027. Joe Hunter is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with a massive 4488.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep skepticism about his chances or potential mispricing given Survivor's inherent unpredictability.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $7,960.49·OI $1,264,657.7·Closes Jan 7, 2027·260d remaining

KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JOE

7-day price24 snapshots · 117 regime

5¢3¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 15

Analysis

2d ago

Joe Hunter is priced at an extremely depressed 3¢ with a massive 4488.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep skepticism about his chances or potential mispricing given Survivor's inherent unpredictability. The $1.26M open interest against only $32K daily volume indicates significant illiquidity relative to position size, creating potential execution challenges and cliff risk (32 rating). The 50% price rise over seven days (2¢ to 3¢) warrants investigation into whether new information about Hunter's gameplay or production details has emerged, though the tight 1¢ spread suggests limited immediate arbitrage opportunity.

Resolution rules

If Joe Hunter is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4533.9%

IY (No) 4.3%

Adj IY 1511%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.33

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4533.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1511%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.33	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 7:57:36 AM

Observability mediumEvent type cultural

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:53:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSURVIVOR-26DEC31-JOE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →