Jonathan Bailey · KXBOND-30
Jonathan Bailey is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside KXBOND-30.
Price history
5¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If Jonathan Bailey is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Jonathan Bailey
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
Callum Turner 35¢
Range
2¢-35¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXBOND-30-JON
May 24, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · 21m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · KXBOND-30
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Jonathan Bailey is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXBOND-30-JON
Event family
KXBOND-30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Callum Turner 35¢
Current share
0%
Callum Turner
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CAL
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JACO
Tom Francis
kalshi · KXBOND-30-TOMF
Josh O'Connor
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JOS
Henry Cavill
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HC
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-ATJ
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HAR
Jack Lowden
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JAC
Aaron Pierre
kalshi · KXBOND-30-AP
Damson Idris
kalshi · KXBOND-30-DI
Idris Elba
kalshi · KXBOND-30-IDRIS
Theo James
kalshi · KXBOND-30-THEO
Jonathan Bailey
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JON
James Norton
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JN
Charlie Hunnam
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CHARL
Cillian Murphy
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CIL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.