Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. Aaron Taylor-Johnson's odds have surged 64% over the past week (from 11¢ to 18¢), suggesting recent positive news or speculation, though the 20¢ price still implies only a 20% probability he'll land the role by 2030.
Analysis
Aaron Taylor-Johnson's odds have surged 64% over the past week (from 11¢ to 18¢), suggesting recent positive news or speculation, though the 20¢ price still implies only a 20% probability he'll land the role by 2030. The extreme realized volatility of 4,736% and vol ratio of 24.75 indicate this market experiences wild swings despite modest $1.1k daily volume, creating a high-risk environment where the 122.7% implied yield on Yes positions reflects significant uncertainty rather than genuine conviction. With 1,356 days until expiry and a neutral regime, this remains a speculative long-shot bet rather than a market pricing in imminent casting news.
Also on polymarket at 3¢(Δ +13¢)
Resolution rules
If Aaron Taylor-Johnson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBOND-30-ATJ yes 100