Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
12 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1286 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?: Callum Turner
KXBOND-30-CAL
Cluster 2
Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond
Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?: Jacob Elordi
KXBOND-30-JACO
Cluster 3
Will Theo James be the next James Bond
Will Theo James be the next James Bond?: Theo James
KXBOND-30-THEO
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond
Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?: Aaron Pierre
KXBOND-30-AP
Cluster 5
Will Jack Lowden be the next James Bond
Will Jack Lowden be the next James Bond?: Jack Lowden
KXBOND-30-JAC
Cluster 6
Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond
Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?: Josh O'Connor
KXBOND-30-JOS
Cluster 7
Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond
Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?: Aaron Taylor-Johnson
KXBOND-30-ATJ
Cluster 8
Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond
Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond?: Tom Francis
KXBOND-30-TOMF
Cluster 9
Will Harris Dickinson be the next James Bond
Will Harris Dickinson be the next James Bond?: Harris Dickinson
KXBOND-30-HAR
Cluster 10
Will James Norton be the next James Bond
Will James Norton be the next James Bond?: James Norton
KXBOND-30-JN
Cluster 11
Will Charlie Hunnam be the next James Bond
Will Charlie Hunnam be the next James Bond?: Charlie Hunnam
KXBOND-30-CHARL
Cluster 12
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?: Henry Cavill
KXBOND-30-HC
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Jacob Elordi will be cast as the next James Bond actor when the role is next filled. The 13% aggregate probability reflects modest confidence in Elordi as a candidate among competing actors. Elordi's youth, acting credentials, and physical profile align with typical Bond casting criteria, supporting his consideration in the talent pool. However, the 11-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests uncertainty about his odds relative to other candidates like Callum Turner (44¢ on Kalshi). The primary catalyst for resolution is an official casting announcement from EON Productions, which typically occurs years before a film release. Until then, market participants are pricing in Elordi's candidacy based on public speculation, Hollywood insiders' commentary, and his career trajectory. The relative illiquidity across venues (most contracts under $1,000 daily volume) indicates limited market attention to this specific outcome.
- ›Callum Turner trades significantly higher (44¢) than Elordi (3-6¢), suggesting Polymarket and Kalshi participants view Turner as a stronger candidate
- ›No official casting announcement has been made by EON Productions; current prices reflect pre-announcement speculation with substantial uncertainty
- ›Elordi's recent filmography and public profile relative to competing actors will influence perceived suitability for the role among market participants
- ›The timing of the next Bond film's pre-production and casting window is not yet confirmed, affecting how soon this market resolves
- ›Cross-venue probability gap of 11 percentage points indicates materially different assessments or trading behaviors between Kalshi and Polymarket participants
What moved the line
- Jun 18Callum Turner↓8pp45→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Callum Turner↑8pp40→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Harris Dickinson↑7pp5→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Callum Turner↓6pp49→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Tom Francis↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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