Harris Dickinson · KXBOND-30
Harris Dickinson is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside KXBOND-30.
Price history
11¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Harris Dickinson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Harris Dickinson
Rank
#7 of 16
Leader
Callum Turner 46¢
Range
1¢-46¢
Family volume
$21K
Identifier
KXBOND-30-HAR
May 26, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$176
Family rank
#7 of 16
16 outcomes · KXBOND-30
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$21K
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 11¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Harris Dickinson is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXBOND-30-HAR
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on polymarket at —.
Event family
KXBOND-30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$21K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Callum Turner 46¢
Current share
1%
Callum Turner
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CAL
Jacob Elordi
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JACO
Tom Francis
kalshi · KXBOND-30-TOMF
Aaron Taylor-Johnson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-ATJ
Henry Cavill
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HC
Josh O'Connor
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JOS
Harris Dickinson
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HAR
Jack Lowden
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JAC
Aaron Pierre
kalshi · KXBOND-30-AP
Theo James
kalshi · KXBOND-30-THEO
Damson Idris
kalshi · KXBOND-30-DI
Idris Elba
kalshi · KXBOND-30-IDRIS
Henry Ashton
kalshi · KXBOND-30-HENR
Jonathan Bailey
kalshi · KXBOND-30-JON
Charlie Hunnam
kalshi · KXBOND-30-CHARL
Nicholas Hoult
kalshi · KXBOND-30-NIC
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.