Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. Josh O'Connor's odds have nearly doubled over the past week (5¢ to 8¢), though the 11¢ current price still implies only an 11% probability he'll be cast as the next Bond before 2030—a 1,356-day window that should theoretically allow ample time for casting announcements.
Analysis
Josh O'Connor's odds have nearly doubled over the past week (5¢ to 8¢), though the 11¢ current price still implies only an 11% probability he'll be cast as the next Bond before 2030—a 1,356-day window that should theoretically allow ample time for casting announcements. The extreme realized volatility of 1,969% and implied yield of 310% on the Yes side suggest this market experiences sharp, episodic price swings likely tied to casting news or O'Connor career developments, though the thin 24-hour volume of $88.81 means moves can be outsized relative to actual information flow.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If Josh O'Connor is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBOND-30-JOS yes 100