Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Iowa?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. Josh Turek's Democratic nomination odds have risen 10.5% over the past week to 46¢, suggesting growing market confidence in his candidacy despite thin liquidity at just $130 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
Josh Turek's Democratic nomination odds have risen 10.5% over the past week to 46¢, suggesting growing market confidence in his candidacy despite thin liquidity at just $130 in 24-hour volume. The Yes side offers an exceptional 251% annualized implied yield, indicating the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty over the 201-day window to the November 2026 Iowa Democratic primary. With only $7,127 in open interest and a tight 2¢ spread, this market lacks depth and could experience sharp repricing if new information about the race emerges or competing candidates enter the field.
Also on polymarket at 36¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
If Josh Turek wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Senate Iowa Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
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sf trade KXKXSENATEIAD-26-JTUR yes 100