SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 21, 2026226 days left

Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year?

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

12¢
$20K volume
$5K liquidity
18825% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$107

Best sibling

Ariana Grande 85¢

Ticker

KX1SONG-DEC2626-KAN

Market snapshot

Kanye West / Ye in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year?. The displayed quote is 12¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $20K. In the KX1SONG-DEC2626 family, this outcome ranks #10 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Kanye West / Ye

Family rank

#10 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

12¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 21, 2026

Reported volume

$20K

Family context

16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626

Quote range

2¢-85¢

Family leader

Ariana Grande 85¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 9m ago

Venue identifier: KX1SONG-DEC2626-KAN. Family volume: $107.

Price history

12¢ current

3¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 7, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

13 / 14¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
13¢20
12¢434
11¢500
6¢33
5¢468
AskSize
14¢14
18¢52
19¢500
29¢16
36¢450

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Kanye West / Ye has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Identifier

KX1SONG-DEC2626-KAN

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1080.9%

IY (No)

24.1%

Adj IY

540%

CRI

7

Overround

9.3%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

low

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

1080.9%
24.1%
Adj IY
540%
7
Overround
9.3%

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