SimpleFunctions
KalshiDec 21, 2026226 days left

Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year?

This contract is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

25¢
$2K volume
$912 liquidity
1515% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$107

Best sibling

Ariana Grande 85¢

Ticker

KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN

Market snapshot

Kendrick Lamar in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year?. The displayed quote is 25¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $2K. In the KX1SONG-DEC2626 family, this outcome ranks #7 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Kendrick Lamar

Family rank

#7 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

25¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Dec 21, 2026

Reported volume

$2K

Family context

16 outcomes · KX1SONG-DEC2626

Quote range

2¢-85¢

Family leader

Ariana Grande 85¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN. Family volume: $107.

Price history

25¢ current

+11¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 8, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

23 / 25¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
23¢16
16¢10
15¢20
14¢61
13¢500
AskSize
25¢504
37¢16
49¢16
61¢30
62¢45

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Kendrick Lamar has a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (including features), by the Billboard issue for the week of Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 21, 2026

Identifier

KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

540.7%

IY (No)

48.2%

Adj IY

541%

CRI

3

RV

1038%

VR

3.18

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

540.7%
48.2%
Adj IY
541%
3
RV
1038%
VR
3.18
IAR
0.4/h
Overround
9.3%

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