Will NF have a #1 hit this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$85
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
226 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit this year
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit this year?: Ariana Grande
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ARI
Cluster 2
Will Zara Larsson have a #1 hit this year
Will Zara Larsson have a #1 hit this year?: Zara Larsson
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ZAR
Cluster 3
Will Chris Brown have a #1 hit this year
Will Chris Brown have a #1 hit this year?: Chris Brown
KX1SONG-DEC2626-CHR
Cluster 4
Will Drake have a #1 hit this year
Will Drake have a #1 hit this year?: Drake
KX1SONG-DEC2626-DRA
Cluster 5
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?: The Weeknd
KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE
Cluster 6
Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year
Will Justin Bieber have a #1 hit this year?: Justin Bieber
KX1SONG-DEC2626-JUS
Cluster 7
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 hit this year
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 hit this year?: Ed Sheeran
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ED
Cluster 8
Will Travis Scott have a #1 hit this year
Will Travis Scott have a #1 hit this year?: Travis Scott
KX1SONG-DEC2626-TRA
Cluster 9
Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year
Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KX1SONG-DEC2626-KAN
Cluster 10
Will Rihanna have a #1 hit this year
Will Rihanna have a #1 hit this year?: Rihanna
KX1SONG-DEC2626-RIH
Cluster 11
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year?: Billie Eilish
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BIL
Cluster 12
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN
Cluster 13
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year?: Post Malone
KX1SONG-DEC2626-POS
Cluster 14
Will J Balvin have a #1 hit this year
Will J Balvin have a #1 hit this year?: J Balvin
KX1SONG-DEC2626-JBA
Cluster 15
Will Future have a #1 hit this year
Will Future have a #1 hit this year?: Future
KX1SONG-DEC2626-FUT
Cluster 16
Will Coldplay have a #1 hit this year
Will Coldplay have a #1 hit this year?: Coldplay
KX1SONG-DEC2626-COL
Cluster 17
Will Nicki Minaj have a #1 hit this year
Will Nicki Minaj have a #1 hit this year?: Nicki Minaj
KX1SONG-DEC2626-NIC
Cluster 18
Will Dua Lipa have a #1 hit this year
Will Dua Lipa have a #1 hit this year?: Dua Lipa
KX1SONG-DEC2626-CUA
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that rapper NF releases a track that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. At 12%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not remote. NF's recent chart performance and release schedule are primary drivers—the artist has had moderate chart success but limited #1 placements historically. The main uncertainty hinges on whether NF plans a major single release in 2026 and whether any new material gains sufficient streaming and sales momentum to compete with higher-profile artists for chart dominance. The resolution depends on official Billboard Hot 100 rankings as they're published throughout the year.
- ›NF's most recent album release date and any announced 2026 singles or tour plans
- ›NF's historical Billboard Hot 100 chart performance, including peak positions and frequency of charting entries
- ›Competitive landscape: whether major label artists drop chart-dominating releases that would displace a potential NF single
- ›Current streaming volume and audience engagement metrics compared to artists with higher #1 probability estimates
- ›Definition clarity: whether the #1 refers specifically to the main Hot 100 chart or includes sub-charts, which affects resolution likelihood
What moved the line
- May 3Ariana Grande↓7pp84→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Travis Scott↑6pp20→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Ariana Grande↑5pp77→82¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Drake↑5pp75→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Travis Scott↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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