Will NF have a #1 hit this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$285
14 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
92 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
will morgan wallen have a #1 hit this year
Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 hit this year?: Morgan Wallen
KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR
Cluster 2
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year?: Post Malone
KX1SONG-DEC2626-POS
Cluster 3
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 hit this year
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 hit this year?: Ed Sheeran
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ED
Cluster 4
Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year
Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 hit this year?: Kanye West / Ye
KX1SONG-DEC2626-KAN
Cluster 5
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN
Cluster 6
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 hit this year
Will Zach Bryan have a #1 hit this year?: Zach Bryan
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ZAC
Cluster 7
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year
Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit this year?: The Weeknd
KX1SONG-DEC2626-WEE
Cluster 8
Will Luke Combs have a #1 hit this year
Will Luke Combs have a #1 hit this year?: Luke Combs
KX1SONG-DEC2626-LUK
Cluster 9
Will Rihanna have a #1 hit this year
Will Rihanna have a #1 hit this year?: Rihanna
KX1SONG-DEC2626-RIH
Cluster 10
Will 21 Savage have a #1 hit this year
Will 21 Savage have a #1 hit this year?: 21 Savage
KX1SONG-DEC2626-21S
Cluster 11
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit this year
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit this year?: Alex Warren
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ALE
Cluster 12
Will Benson Boone have a #1 hit this year
Will Benson Boone have a #1 hit this year?: Benson Boone
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEN
Cluster 13
Will Beyoncé have a #1 hit this year
Will Beyoncé have a #1 hit this year?: Beyoncé
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEY
Cluster 14
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year?: Billie Eilish
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BIL
Analysis
This contract assesses the likelihood that rapper NF will achieve a #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 chart during 2026. The 19% probability reflects NF's track record as a consistent charting artist without a #1 single to date, balanced against the difficulty of reaching the top position in a crowded market. The main factors influencing this probability are whether NF releases new music in 2026 and its commercial reception. A major catalyst would be NF's announcement of a new album or single release, which would significantly shift expectations. The resolution depends on Billboard's official Hot 100 rankings throughout the remainder of 2026, making any new material release the key uncertainty resolver.
- ›NF has never achieved a #1 hit on the Billboard Hot 100 despite consistent chart performance, suggesting structural difficulty in reaching the top spot
- ›No confirmed album or single release from NF has been publicly announced for 2026 as of the current date
- ›Achieving #1 status requires simultaneous strength across streaming, radio play, and sales, all of which are dominated by a small number of acts annually
- ›NF's recent chart trajectory and fanbase engagement would determine whether any 2026 release could compete with established and emerging artists
- ›The specific release date of any new material in 2026 would heavily influence its competitive positioning against other major releases during the year
What moved the line
- Sep 19Morgan Wallen↓13pp26→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Kendrick Lamar↓9pp22→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Post Malone↓8pp21→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Kendrick Lamar↓4pp13→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Zach Bryan↓4pp8→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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