Will NF have a #1 hit this year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$202
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 21, 2026
181 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 hit this year?: Kendrick Lamar
KX1SONG-DEC2626-KEN
Cluster 2
Will Doechii have a #1 hit this year
Will Doechii have a #1 hit this year?: Doechii
KX1SONG-DEC2626-DOE
Cluster 3
will morgan wallen have a #1 hit this year
Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 hit this year?: Morgan Wallen
KX1SONG-DEC2626-MOR
Cluster 4
Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 hit this year
Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 hit this year?: Sabrina Carpenter
KX1SONG-DEC2626-SAB
Cluster 5
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year
Will Post Malone have a #1 hit this year?: Post Malone
KX1SONG-DEC2626-POS
Cluster 6
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year?: Mariah Carey
KX1SONG-DEC2626-MAR
Cluster 7
Will Beyoncé have a #1 hit this year
Will Beyoncé have a #1 hit this year?: Beyoncé
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEY
Cluster 8
Will 21 Savage have a #1 hit this year
Will 21 Savage have a #1 hit this year?: 21 Savage
KX1SONG-DEC2626-21S
Cluster 9
Will Addison Rae have a #1 hit this year
Will Addison Rae have a #1 hit this year?: Addison Rae
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ADD
Cluster 10
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit this year
Will Alex Warren have a #1 hit this year?: Alex Warren
KX1SONG-DEC2626-ALE
Cluster 11
Will Lil Baby have a #1 hit this year
Will Lil Baby have a #1 hit this year?: Lil Baby
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BAB
Cluster 12
Will Bebe Rexha have a #1 hit this year
Will Bebe Rexha have a #1 hit this year?: Bebe Rexha
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEB
Cluster 13
Will Benson Boone have a #1 hit this year
Will Benson Boone have a #1 hit this year?: Benson Boone
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BEN
Cluster 14
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 hit this year?: Billie Eilish
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BIL
Cluster 15
Will BLACKPINK have a #1 hit this year
Will BLACKPINK have a #1 hit this year?: BLACKPINK
KX1SONG-DEC2626-BLA
Cluster 16
Will Calvin Harris have a #1 hit this year
Will Calvin Harris have a #1 hit this year?: Calvin Harris
KX1SONG-DEC2626-CAL
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated chance that rapper NF releases a track that reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point during 2026. At 12%, the market suggests this outcome is unlikely but not remote. NF's recent chart performance and release schedule are primary drivers—the artist has had moderate chart success but limited #1 placements historically. The main uncertainty hinges on whether NF plans a major single release in 2026 and whether any new material gains sufficient streaming and sales momentum to compete with higher-profile artists for chart dominance. The resolution depends on official Billboard Hot 100 rankings as they're published throughout the year.
- ›NF's most recent album release date and any announced 2026 singles or tour plans
- ›NF's historical Billboard Hot 100 chart performance, including peak positions and frequency of charting entries
- ›Competitive landscape: whether major label artists drop chart-dominating releases that would displace a potential NF single
- ›Current streaming volume and audience engagement metrics compared to artists with higher #1 probability estimates
- ›Definition clarity: whether the #1 refers specifically to the main Hot 100 chart or includes sub-charts, which affects resolution likelihood
What moved the line
- Jun 21Mariah Carey↓11pp88→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Sabrina Carpenter↑7pp18→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Post Malone↓6pp56→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Morgan Wallen↑5pp22→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Post Malone↑5pp46→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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