Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will Maggie Hassan vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with 654% realized volatility and a 261% annualized yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume suggests minimal conviction despite the attractive payout.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme volatility with 654% realized volatility and a 261% annualized yield on the Yes side, yet zero 24-hour volume suggests minimal conviction despite the attractive payout. The price has declined 17% over seven days to 40¢, and the 7¢ spread combined with just $1,810 open interest indicates execution risk that could make the quoted probability unreliable. With 260 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the high info arrival rate (0.8/h) suggests market participants expect material developments around Hassan's voting intentions, but the lack of trading activity makes this more of a speculative position than an efficiently-priced contract.
Resolution rules
If Maggie Hassan votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-MHAS yes 100